Browsing by Author "Holman, Glen"
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- ItemMetadata onlyAn analysis of the OPEC Reference Basket with regards to African Pricing and Spread to the WTI and Brent(2019) Awasom, Nde-Asaa; Holman, GlenThis study aims at analysing how African oil benchmarks within the OPEC Reference Basket relative to the WTI and Brent benchmarks which are considered as global pricing benchmarks for the period starting from 1997-2008. The Nigerian Bonny Light and Algerian Saharan blend were the two benchmarks used for this study. A time series analysis was applied to the weekly price data series set and with the aid of a breakpoint unit root test and Cusum of Squared test to determine if there was a change in the persistence of the spread of each African benchmark relative to the global benchmarks. The results for from the unit root test indicated the presence of a structural break in the price spread in 2004 for the Bonny Light benchmark and in 2005 for the Saharan blend relative to both global benchmarks. The Cusum Squared test for the four benchmark pairings indicated a change in persistence of the price spreads. The null hypothesis was rejected for the alternative hypothesis of the price spread process having a relatively high persistence value after a while. The Cusum Test results showed a change in persistence for both African benchmarks relative to the WTI benchmark and no change in persistence relative to the Brent benchmark. The results of from the Time series analysis indicated the competitive nature of African benchmarks relative to global benchmarks and this could benefit exporting countries by virtue of setting up derivative markets. The derivative markets would allow for the trade of benchmark spreads, futures contracts, options and other financial instruments for African oil producers.
- ItemOpen AccessAnalysis of credit expansion in South Africa(2008) Mbayi, Willy Bashiya; Holman, GlenDevelopments in South Africa over the past few years clearly testify to the strong relationships between economic growth and credit expansion. The paper analyses the factors driving credit growth in South Africa. It shows the strong income effect on the credit level in South Africa while the changes in interest rates do negatively affect home loans but have less effect on other components of bank credit to the private sector. This paper concludes that the interest rates policy must be combined with other tools of monetary and financial policy to guarantee a structurally lower level of credit to the private sector.
- ItemOpen AccessAn analysis of models of branchless banking in developing countries(2012) Makhubedu, Dipolelo; Holman, GlenThis paper pays special attention to banking the unbanked population in the developing markets through branchless banking. This form of banking is defined as the delivery of financial services outside conventional bank branches using information and communications technologies and nonbank retail agents. The services offered take a variety of forms including long-distance remittances, micropayments, and informal airtime bartering schemes for example: mobile banking, mobile transfers, and mobile payments. Using Kenya’s M-PESA as the lead case study, the impact of combining the use of mobile network operators and banks has proved to be effective.
- ItemOpen AccessAn analysis of the benefits of issuing convertible debt in South Africa: Shoprite Holdings Ltd case study(2013) Wormald, Simon; Holman, GlenThe aim of this paper is to investigate Shoprite’s decision to issue convertible bonds despite South African firms tending to favour traditional forms of debt or equity. The paper first revisits the theory on convertible debt to consider the possible reasons for why Shoprite elected to issue convertible debt, and then develops two models, the first to quantify Shoprite’s debt capacity and cost of debt, the second to value the convertible bond issue, and quantify the benefit, if any, that convertible bonds achieved as opposed to a straight debt or equity issue.
- ItemOpen AccessAn analysis of why SAPPI Limited had to issue foreign denominated debt(2016) Weimann, Dylan; Holman, GlenSAPPI Limited ("SAPPI") is a company that was established in South Africa in the 1930's and has grown into a global player in the paper and pulp industry, as well as the chemical cellulose industry. Historical financing decisions made in the growth phases of the company's life cycle left it with the need to refinance debt obligations payable in the early 2010's. In order to meet these obligations, four callable bonds with high coupon rates denominated in Euro and US Dollar were issued in 2011 and 2012 below investment grade. This study examines the cost at which these high yield bonds were issued by SAPPI and discusses the potential reasoning behind the decisions made by SAPPI in the process to obtain further financing. Financing solutions within the South African market are discussed with the conclusion that the South African listed high yield corporate bond market was not adequate for SAPPI, given its credit rating being below investment grade and the value of funding required. In addition, SAPPI's exposure to foreign currencies through global operations made the Euro and US Dollar denominated bond issues favourable to the business. To illustrate the cost of the bonds issued in both Euro and US Dollar, the second part of this study consists of an analysis of the option‐adjusted spreads at which these bonds were issued. Our analysis involved taking into account the probability of the call provisions being exercised by SAPPI at the date of issue through a detailed application of the option‐adjusted spread methodology and the use of a recombining binomial lattice. Through a quantitative example of the process followed and a discussion of the spreads determined, we indicate the true cost at which finance was obtained by SAPPI for each bond issued. A brief discussion on the hedging decisions taken by SAPPI management on the issuance of the debt has also been included. Furthermore, the retrospective performance of the foreign exchange hedging decisions made have been assessed through movements in global financial markets from the time hedging decisions were enacted up until 30 September 2015.
- ItemOpen AccessChange in corporate debt levels in South Africa from 1994 to 2016(2018) Slabbert, George Raymond; Holman, GlenThis paper aims to investigate the change in corporate debt levels in South Africa from 1994 to 2016 as well as analyse certain factors that play a role in the decision making of corporates when it comes to the all important decision of capital structure. The study uses data from large capitalisation, retail and food producing firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Four different leverage measures are used to determine the change in capital structure over the period under review as well as six of the most common determinants of capital structure used in literature. The analysis shows that South African corporates have drastically increased their appetite for debt funding compared to equity funding over the last two decades. Large capitalisation stocks reflected the largest increase in the use of debt, whilst food producers showed the smallest yet still significant increase in debt. Analysis has also shown that firms have changed their maturity profile of their debt significantly since the 2008 financial crises. Results from the analysis on determinants varied with some determinants showing statistical significance.
- ItemOpen AccessChange in Corporate debt levels in South Africa from 1994 to 2016(2019) Philogene, Bianca Robyn; Holman, GlenThis paper aims to investigate the change in corporate debt levels in South Africa from 1994 to 2016, included is an analysis of factors that firms take into consideration when determining the company’s capital structure. This study uses data from firms in the Real Estate and REIT, Travel and Leisure and Construction and Materials sectors listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Four different leverage measures are used to determine the change in capital structure for the period under review, as well as six of the most commonly used determinants of capital structure. A high level interpretation of the results reflected the following; an increase in the use of debt in the Travel and Leisure and Construction and Materials Sectors, however a significant decrease in the use of debt relative to equity was seen in the Real Estate and REIT Sector thus skewing the Total Sample findings considerably. An increase in the use of long term debt relative to short term was also found. Results from the analysis of the capital structure determinants varied, with some determinants showing statistical significance. The following determinants were positively related to debt; firm size, asset tangibility and growth while the determinants; cost of debt and tax had a negative relationship. The relationship between profitability and leverage was varied.
- ItemOpen AccessChange in Corporate Debt Levels in South Africa from 1994 to 2016(2020) van der Westhuizen, Kyla; Holman, GlenThis paper investigated the change in corporate debt levels in South Africa from 1994 to 2016. Included is an analysis of factors that companies take into consideration when determining the company's capital structure. This study used data from companies, largely from the mining sector, within sectors listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), including chemicals, general industries, oil and gas. Four different leverage measures were used to determine the change in capital structure for the period under review, as well as six of the most commonly used determinants of capital structure. A high-level interpretation of the results reflected the following; a slight but relatively consistent increase in the use of debt relative to equity over the period for both the total sample and the mining sector. An increase in the use of long- relative to short term debt was also found, as well as a convergence between the use of current and non-current liabilities. Results from the analysis of the capital structure determinants varied, with some showing statistical significance. Asset tangibility was positively correlated to debt, while profitability and growth had a negative relationship. The relationship between company size, tax and cost of debt and leverage was varied.
- ItemOpen AccessThe changing landscape of long-term share-based compensation in South Africa: an investigation into recent developments in employee incentive used by companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange(2012) Mavrodinov, Nikolay Stefanov; Holman, GlenFor several decades equity-based compensation has been used as a tool to align the incentives of company executives and employees with those of the company shareholders. For instance globally, during the 1990's, there was and explosion in the issuance of employee stock options. This served several purposes, namely - to motivate managers in the pursuit to increase company value and achieve long-term goals, as a retention tool for talented staff and also as a way for cash strapped young companies to reward employees without the need to divert cash from operating activities.The objective of this study is to examine the current long-term share-based incentive schemes used by JSE listed companies based on data from 50 large and mid cap companies. It aims to identify trends in terms of prevalent scheme types, average scheme size relative to issued share capital, settlement methods, valuation models used, construction of model inputs and the use of performance conditions.
- ItemOpen AccessDerivative usage by listed companies in Ghana and Nigeria - 2008/2009(2011) Henning, Luke; Holman, GlenThis study seeks to establish if companies use derivatives and if so what kinds of derivatives. It does not seek to establish the reasons for derivative usage as is commonly done in Wharton Survey Style study.
- ItemOpen AccessDerivative usage by listed companies in Mauritius, Morocco, Tunisia, WAEMU region 2008/2009(2012) Raharison, Ratsitoarivelo; Holman, GlenDerivatives have a long history which could be traced as far as in the biblical times, around 1700 B.C when Jacob was granted the right to marry Laban’s daughter, in counterparty of seven years of work, an agreement often presented as one of the first option contract in the human history. However, the use of derivatives really expanded over the last three decades. According to the Bank of International Settlement (BIS), the outstanding notional amount of the global over-the-counter (OTC) derivative market reached USD 708 trillion in June 2011. Derivative markets have a significant role to play in the development of African financial markets. Indeed, through the mechanisms of price discovery and risk transfer; derivative instruments introduce greater market efficiency and provide market participants the opportunity to hedge their exposure to various financial risks. The development of a derivative strong market in Africa presents a compelling case given the nature of several African economies, predominantly composed of primary commodity producers, open small economies inherently vulnerable to commodity price, foreign exchange volatility, and interest rate risks.
- ItemOpen AccessDerivatives usage in Egypt : a study of the use of derivative financial instruments by Egyptian companies listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange(2012) Hart, Kevin; Holman, GlenIn the absence of market imperfections, risk management cannot create value. There would be no demand for hedging instruments (including derivatives) in the absence of taxes, agency costs, information asymmetry or transaction costs. Financial theory proposes two main sets of explanations for risk management: firstly, risk management is a means to maximize firm value by reducing the costs of financial distress (hedging can allow firms to increase debts capacity and raise funds at lower costs), reducing taxation (reducing earnings volatility and therefore decreasing expected taxes) and reducing the effects of information asymmetry. Secondly, the reasons to hedge can be found by reference to economies of scale: the majority of studies have found a positive correlation between firm size and the use of derivatives, although size is believed to be a constraining factor rather than a determining factor for risk management. It is proposed by Schiozer and Saito (2009) that firms in emerging economies such as Brazil, Argentina (and arguably Egypt), manage risks for different reasons when compared to mature economies such as the US. Emerging economies are often characterized by high volatility of exchange and interest rates. Additionally, there is often a scarcity of domestic funding that leads firms to raise funds on foreign capital markets to finance investment projects. Foreign denominated debt has always proved to produce significant risk exposure for emerging market firms. This research was undertaken to gain insight into the use of derivatives by Egyptian firms. The majority of previous research into derivative usage has focused on developed economies with little similar research into emerging economies and even less research into Middle Eastern economies such as Egypt.
- ItemOpen AccessDeveloping a methodology for the qualitative and quantitative credit analysis of banks in Kenya and Nigeria from a South African perspective(2009) Vlok, Stephen Raymond; Holman, Glen; Shev, JoanneThis study presents research on credit risk assessment in emerging market countries with particular emphasis on the Kenyan and Nigerian markets. Using prior emerging market research, information from credit rating agencies and information gained from a country visit, a revised methodology is devised. Using this methodology, the individual banks scores are in line with the expectations of how they would rank relative to each other in terms of qualitative and quantitative factors.
- ItemOpen AccessEvaluating the impact of the upgrades to the facilities at Namibia's largest international airport(2018) Emvula, Aune Nyanyukweni; Holman, GlenInfrastructure development is vital and plays a big role in economic development of any state as high and sustainable economic growth requires modern and reliable infrastructure. However, due to risks related to time, quality, cost and scope, infrastructure investments do not always result in benefits that fuel economic development. The study identified two problem areas: (a) the current airport infrastructure is not sufficient to support aviation expansion as well as other modes of transport as per the NDP4; and (b) the airport was faced with a downgrade in its firefighting category during July 2014 following the DCA site audit findings. This study was conducted to establish whether funds that were invested for the upgrade and renovation of the HKIA facilities in the 2013/2014 year resulted in improvements that fuel economic and social development in Namibia; and to explore whether participants in the study perceive the investment as money well spent. The study uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative methodologies in order to allow the cohort of insight into the subject matter. Themes and propositions materialised from the data that back the following conclusions: (1) it is the participants' perception that the project enhanced the airport infrastructure and complemented other core elements which could be met to grow economic and social development further; (2) there is a close correlation between passengers/aircrafts movements and the investment made to the airport; (3) the upgrades to the airport resulted in its ability to demonstrate firefighting capabilities and its compliance to the ICAO firefighting requirements; (4) the project lacked involvement by the Namibian government who is the sole shareholder of the NAC and a financier of the HKIA project; (5) there is no aviation policy in the country to guide the aviation sector in its activities; and (6) the investment levels at the HKIA are considered too low as the current terminal building area is unable to complement the growing demand at HKIA. Most importantly, HKIA is a gateway for tourists and investors into Namibia, and requires excessive strategic planning and transformation in terms of its infrastructure, in order to carry out this function efficiently and in a sustainable manner. Therefore, there is a need for a funding mechanism that is sustainable to further develop the HKIA and consequently the economy.
- ItemOpen AccessEvolution of Corporate Leverage on the JSE from 1994 to 2016(2022) Mokoko, Tseko; Holman, GlenIn this paper, an attempt has been made to examine the evolution of corporate leverage of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) from 1994 to 2016. Analysis of the data set is organized around a sample of 126 listed companies across twelve sub-sector industries, namely, Banks, Financial Services, Life Insurance, Fixed Line Telecommunications, Nonlife Insurance, Health Care Equipment and Services, Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology, Media, Technology Hardware and Equipment, Software and Computer Services, Electronic and Electrical Equipment and Support Services. 621 delisted companies were also briefly analysed to eliminate survivorship bias. Results of multiple regressions using two primary leverage measures and six commonly used determinants of capital structure were varied. Tangibility and growth were negatively related to debt while cost of debt was positively related to debt. Firm size, profitability and corporate tax rate yielded a varied relationship with corporate leverage. Only the growth capital structure determinant showed statistical significance. The overall findings indicate a rise in corporate leverage that coincides in tandem with major local and international economic events.
- ItemOpen AccessAn examination of potential backdating of executive share option grants in South Africa(2007) Zheng, Fuling; Holman, GlenThis study investigates whether executives backdate share option grants to their advantage in South Africa. Using data of 175 option grants to executives among the 41 top companies in South Africa between 2001 and 2006, a pattern of negative cumulative abnormal stock returns before the grant dates but positive and increasing returns thereafter is observed. This pattern is much more pronounced for unscheduled grants. Statistical testing shows the mean cumulative abnormal returns are significantly different from zero after the grant date, but are not significantly different from zero before the grant date. The mean differences in average cumulative abnormal stock returns between pre- and post- grant periods are significantly different. The results suggest that some opportunistic behavior might have taken place around the executive option grants, including backdating.
- ItemOpen AccessAn examination of the price reaction to the announcement of bond issues by Johannesburg Stock Exchange listed companies on the Bond Exchange of South Africa(2010) Lippert, Joe Mark; Holman, GlenThis paper examines the effect of straight debt announcements on the daily stock returns of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed companies, on The Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA), during the period 2000 to 2008. The study is an event study that uses the market model to generate expected returns. The average abnormal returns are standardised by their time series standard errors of regression and tested for significance by the t-test. The evidence indicates that the null hypothesis should not be rejected. Furthermore, the study is examined within the context of contemporary capital structure theory.
- ItemOpen AccessFair value accounting in South African banks : financial stability implications(2015) De Jager, Phillip; Holman, GlenThis article-based thesis consists of three main papers that examine the use of fair value accounting in banks and how it can influence behaviour with systemic effects; this helps in understanding the role of fair value accounting in the global financial crisis. The examination consisted of two parts. The first part was the investigation of how fair value accounting was actually used by South African banks. The second part was the development of an analytical model that links together fair value accounting, bank capital regulation and economic outcomes. The South African case study was further divided into two parts. In the first part, a comparative design was used to investigate in detail how fair value accounting was implemented by two South African banks and what their motivations were. The second part sought to answer the question: did South African banks pay out higher dividends based on risky fair value accounting gains? The South African evidence indicates that fair value accounting materially impacts the profit and loss and the regulatory capital of banks. This component of regulatory capital proved to be risky. Dangerous pay-outs resulted from the increase in profits and bank assets grew the most during the period of risky capital formation. It was found that the use of a stock-flow consistent model of the economy was a commonality amongst those that predicted the global financial crisis. A stock-flow consistent model was shown to be descriptive of the South African evidence. The model showed fair value accounting to be at the centre of feedback processes that can weaken the banking system during the economic upswing. The study concludes that fair value accounting is central in processes that weaken the banking system during an economic upswing and thus demonstrates why the current call for prudent accounting in banks is justified. The study expands on current literature in a number of ways. It adds to the literature that fair value accounting is procyclical by demonstrating that this effect is not constant throughout the cycle and is more problematic during the upswing; this differs from the usual argument that fair value accounting accelerates the downturn. The South African empirical evidence showed that fair value accounting for available-for-sale assets is not the only avenue for fair value accounting to be dangerous; fair value accounting adjustments through profit and loss should also be monitored. The analytical model as well as the South African empirical evidence contradicts the common argument that the fair value measurement of financial instruments must be pervasive in a bank and banking system to be dangerous. The South African empirical evidence shows that fair value accounting must be considered a possible avenue of earnings or capital management in banks.
- ItemOpen AccessAn initial analysis of African Mutual Fund Fees and expenses(2015) Wright, Graysen Gordon; Holman, GlenThe core objective of this study is to compile an African Mutual Fund database with a focus on fees charged, expenses borne and fund sizes. Until now, no consolidated database of African Mutual Fund expenses exists. The ancillary goal of the paper is to arrange the dataset in order to perform basic statistical analysis; and to test for the existence or non-existence of a number of internationally established relationships between fund fees, expenses and other variables in an African context. The paper aims to establish both similarities and abnormalities relating to the efficiency of African Mutual Funds in comparison with their international counterparts. No prior work has been produced in the context of African Mutual Funds as the industry has been overlooked, until recently, due to the growing perception of Africa representing the final frontier for investors seeking abnormal returns. The fundamental data utilized in this research paper includes African Mutual Fund Total Expense Ratios, Net Asset Values (NAVs), and mean Total Expense Ratios (TERs) for international mutual funds with no particular geographical limitations. This paper achieves its objective of collating a comprehensive database of African Mutual Fund fees, expenses, size and other variables. Findings include weak evidence confirming the inverse relationship between the level of financial market development and mutual fund expense ratios, the inverse relationship between mean expense ratios per country and the strength of investor protection in the related country, and a positive relationship between fund family size and mean TERs - indicating the presence of scale economies in African Mutual Fund families. All such findings are in line with empirical evidence presented by international studies. Consistent with other exploratory research, the paper includes a number of unexpected findings and observations regarding the general disarray of corporate governance in the African Mutual Fund industry. A foundation for the research of African funds has been built, and is intended to serve as a platform for future research as African financial markets continue to develop.
- ItemOpen AccessAn initial analysis of South African mutual fund expenses(2010) Griffiths, James; Holman, GlenThe following research aims to collect and collate a set of data relating to characteristics of mutual funds within the South African Mutual Fund Industry, with a specific focus on expenses. In addition, this research aims to investigate certain relationships within the industry, again keeping a specific focus on expenses. The key data used in the analysis include South African Mutual Fund Total Expense Ratios, Net Asset Values and Annualised Returns as well as mean Total Expense Ratios for other countries. The research finds that there exists no relationship between fund performance and expenses within the South African Mutual Fund Industry and that South African mutual funds exhibit significantly higher expenses than those of developed nations.
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